Townsville NQ Capital Legitimacy Under Threat from North

Townsville's industrial relevance and Capital of North Queensland status is set to experience testing times over the next decade as the average vacancy rate approaches 30 percent in the City.

In contrast, the Cairns economy continues to see positive growth on the back of growing demand for agricultural products and international tourism experiences.

The City's business sector more broadly is seeing mixed activity with business confidence and job advertisements increasing while employment prospects continue to decrease.

Employment in the industrial sector of mining and construction has been impacted more than any other sector of the market.

The industrial sectors' contribution to Townsville's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has reduced as a proportion to the total economic contribution of the region.

And therefore it begs the question about the relevance and future prospects for the industrial real estate market in Townsville and the City's claim to the symbolic title of being the capital of North Queensland. 

As the Herron Todd White Property Update for November 2016 reports, the job advertisements and business confidence is showing positive indications. But the all important unemployment rate is still unfavourable at 12 percent.

The actual number of people employed is the most telling economic indicator. On this measure, the trend since early 2011 has continued on negative news of approximately 25,000 workers losing their jobs to November 2016. This has been six years of sustained contraction in labour force wages.

Apart from mining exploration, extraction, processing and the commodity export supply chain, and various light industrial operations, Townsville's industrial and commercial sector has struggled to grow capacity as construction, mining and manufacturing GDP has reduced.

Technology is changing the supply chain's demand for labour and bringing unprecedented transparency on uncompetitive goods and services. This is impacting global industrials like never before. And this too will impact this sector of the Townsville market heavily.

Yet it's the industrial sector and the collaboration with landlords and tenants that will be critical in the next phase of Townsville's industrial relevance because innovation will enable existing products to develop and continue to find profitable markets, while invention will bring increased capacity potential and therefore more capability that will impact employment and GDP overall.

Cairns to the North of Townsville are competing for population and profits growth. Its leaders and commentators makes no bones about that.

Its robust international tourism and goods supply chain readily accessible to Asian markets, solid growth in property values, and a willingness to talk down Townsville's appeal at every opportunity, makes for challenging times for Townsville's property market and legitimacy as the capital of North Queensland.

References:

Herron Todd White Property Market Update November 2016

National Australia Bank Online Retail Sales Index June 2016

Australian Treasury Small Business Key Statistics and Analysis Report 2012

Rapid Realty Australia

Ready the Spinnaker – Winds of Fortune Turning in the Townsville Market

Townsville property has experienced significant head winds over the past 12-24 months impacting on investor yields, particularly in the apartment market, while lower median prices and valuations have occurred on the back of slowing economic conditions.

Increased holding costs, higher unemployment, government stimulus programs impacting over supply in the new construction sector, and fiscal policy reducing demand for private rentals with tax minimisation incentives for investors, have all been contributing factors as reported by Townsville Real Estate Blog.

It seems many measures and conditions have been unfavourable for incumbent investors while the fundamentals of the City’s broad-based economy have sustained continued interest in Townsville as a solid investment destination.

As the head winds ease and the inevitable turn of momentum comes, events are suggesting the winds could now be moderating to the stern (rear of the ship) offering forward momentum as governments announce publicly at least, sponsorship of capital investment projects such as the Ross Creek Precinct and jobs programs at a local call centre to mitigate the political risk of intolerable unemployment figures, and a growing displeasure with the perception of South-east Queensland-centric policies of the Newman government.

Now the Capital City markets are slowing and rental yields are weakening, as reported by RP Data’s senior researcher, Cameron Kusher. Mr Kusher reported; “With rents growing at their slowest pace in many years we are also seeing weakening rental yields. At a combined capital city level across all dwellings, gross rental yields are recorded at 3.8% which is the lowest reading since January 2011. With the rate of capital gains outpacing rental growth we are seeing rental returns reduce across all capital cities. In fact, over the past year gross rental yields have fallen across each capital city.

Townsville some 24 months ago experienced simular dynamics with an increasing supply of new housing driven by Federal and State government money, cash flow thirsty developers pushing land releases, cheaper housing models on smaller allotment sizes and a highly competitive build market caused yields and prices to ease.

RP Data’s Mr Kusher also commented; “The surge in building approvals over the past 18 months or so is likely to be contributing to the slowing rate of rental growth. With the number of home sales rising, new housing supply rising, more investor owned properties and population growth slowing, those renting properties have comparatively more housing options to choose from. As a result, the owners of these investment properties have less scope to increase weekly rents when renters can find alternate accommodation more easily than in the past”.

Townsville’s rental vacancy rate has reduced from July to August 2014 by 1% as the mid-year seasonal in-flows of people occur. Still less demand experienced in previous seasons as Herron Todd White’s Townsville Rent Roll Report for Oct 2014 identified with total vacancy rates sitting at 4.42%, units are 5.77% and houses are 4.42%.

Compared to Oct 2013, the vacancy rate for Oct 2014 is nearly 2% higher, which does not lead well for vacancy rates and flow on demand of consumer goods and services coming into the Christmas period, which traditionally experiences further outflows of people from the City.

Despite the sustained higher vacancy rates pushing prices for rental accommodation down in both unit and housing, interest in house sales have improved slightly with an increased median price of 3.5% over the past 12 months. Unit prices reduced by 12% with this sector considered a high risk investment in the short term. Houses on the other hand are picking up from the winds of fortune turning and astute investors are heeding the signals.

Local Real Estate Principal and Auctioneer, Aaron McLeod commented; “Our Townsville team has experienced an upswing of buyer interest in properties with value-add prospects. Land where a small subdivision, dual occupancy development is approved within 5 kilometres from the CBD or where properties need minor improvements to generate a positive return in financial or lifestyle terms”, Mr McLeod said.

Self-managed superfunds have been active in the market along with traditional home buyers acting on the purchase of quality homes at fair prices. These buyers along with astute investors have contributed to the transaction volumes and causing a modest upswing in prices off the back of sustained price easing over the past 5 years, Mr McLeod commented.

With government attention being drawn to the North Queensland economy with relatively high unemployment leading up to a State election, the supply of new housing easing as competition and development cost become less profitable, government funding for subsidised accommodation reducing and Capital City yields and prices easing in an environment of low cash rates, Townsville and North Queensland investors should get set as the main sail draws on the tail winds of an improving property market leading into 2015/16.

References:

RP Data Core Logic Report

Herron Todd White Townsville Rent Roll Survey Report

Townsville Real Estate Blog

Real Estate and Rentals Industry Highest Contributor to Townsville Regional Economy

Townsville's real estate and rental industry including hire services contribute more value-added services than any other industry with 12.3% or $1.41 billion of the Gross Regional Product (GRP) followed by public administration, manufacturing, construction, health care and social assistance, etc.

Townsville is one of the most stable and diverse regional economies as one of the largest in Australia. By 2025, Townsville is forecast to become the 12th largest metropolitan and regional economy across the country.

Regarded as the industrial and commercial hub of North Queensland, Townsville is recognised as Northern Australia's largest economy contributing value-added services to the tune of $11.426 billion per annum. Over 23,000 businesses exist in Townsville.

The North Queensland economy has grown by $1.15 billion in 18 months and $78 billion worth of projects is in the pipeline (TEL Development Status Report, March 2014). Defence contributes $639.7 million or 1.8% of the Townsville economy.

Australia's leading demographer Bernard Salt said, "Townsville's next phase of growth is likely to see it accrue the critical mass in population to transform from a regional centre into a metropolitan centre."

With an average temperature of 29 degrees, 300 plus days of sunshine, a median house price of $345,000, 320 parks including the award wining tropical beach at the Strand and 3 national sporting teams in the North Queensland Cowboys, Townsville Crocodiles and Townsville Fire, Townsvillle is recognised as the most sustainable City by the Australian Conservation Foundation in 2010.

Boasting a world ranking in the top 4% of world tertiary instructions by Shanghai Jiao Tong University, James Cook University is Australia's leading tropical research university in medicine, health, education, sustainablity and marine science. In fact the Townsville hospital is the only tertiary hospital outside an Australian capital city. Townsville has over 60 primary and secondary schools.

Transportation is a critical strategic infrastructure for Townsville North Queensland and Queensland's North West Minerals economy handling $15 billion of goods and 13.6 million tonnes in 2013/2013. Townsville airport services both domestic and defence infrastructure with 1.7 million air passengers per annum and 34 flights per day. The Northern Australian Aerospace Centre of Excellence and Business Park is based at the Townsville Airport precinct.

Queensland's gateway to the vast minerals and energy resources of the North West Minersls Province and Galilee Basin injects $3.41 billion to GRP. The region is recognised globally as a strong and competitive minerals producing region with high quality copper, silver, lead, zinc, gold and phosphate deposits. The Premier of Queensland The Hon Campbell Newman said, "The Galilee Basin has the potential to create lucrative new export markets and generate thousands of new jobs in mining, construction and other supporting industries."

The Townsville Port has recently been upgraded with $80 million of development including a dedicated cruiseship and defence terminal and $1.3 billion expansion project. The Port activities include $8 billion trade value to 241 trading ports and 42 countries and 721 vessel visits. (Port of Townsville Limited, 2014)

Townsville North Queensland has an estimated population of nearly 234,000 people with an average annual growth rate of 2.0% from 2003 to 2013. The projected 2036 population growth is forecast to reach 361,098 with 79 new residents per week moving to the City. The average age of Townsville citizens is age 34 years. Over 1 million visitors to the region spend over $662 million per year to the economy. Over 300 events are held each year including the V8 supercars Townsville 400 and the Festival of Chamber Music.

In the scope of the entire Townsville regional economy, real estate and renting services is the "castle rock" in a housing market that plays a signifant role in the overall economic activity of the City.

From an investment perspective, this economic contribution by the real estate and renting industry is an indication of the depth of resilience for property investors in a vibrant and growing region.

References:

Replan Economic Development Modelling

Townsville Enterprise Limited (TEL)

Herron Todd White Townsville in Focus, February 2014

Port of Townsville Limited, 2014

TEL Development Status Report, March 2014

Rapid Realty Townsville - www.rapidrealty.com.au

Boom or Bust? Convergence of Factors Impacting Townsville Real EstateMarket

Townsville's property market is a laboratory of capital, social and policy forces impacting on the supply and demand dynamics for accommodation and housing in Australia's 2nd largest economy.

The 'Capital of North Queensland' has seen steady price movements in both acquisition and leasing markets over the past 5 years.

But now the time has come, or we are on the eve of a long awaited uptrend at least, that investors and accommodation consumers realise the benefits from a convergence of economic, policy and political factors pushing prices to the pinnacle of downside trends in the market.

If Warren Buffett's secret to successful investing in business is to be believed, the underlying value of the Townsville property market is undervalued and primed for valued-centric investors.

In comparison to Australian capital cities, significant regional economies and local trends in prices and values, the 'Greater Townsville Region' is a "hot spot" location for investors in the Australian marketplace.

"The arrival of a new agency in Townsville comes as ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan predicts a revival for the property market. Speaking to the Committee of Economic Development of Australia this week, Mr Hogan said “the housing market is in its early stages of a solid cyclic upswing” caused by low interest rates and market shortfalls. He predicted a 15-20 per cent increase in home values between 2013 and 2015 and said Queensland cities could soon experience growth already seen in southern capitals." Townsville Bulletin, Feb 2014.

Townsville in Focus Report May 2014 identified that; "The median house price stood at $355,000 in March 2014, 2.0% below the $358,000 median house price recorded in March 2012 and 6.1% below the peak of the market in December 2009.

A significant lead indicator for the accommodation and housing market is the demand for residential rental accommodation. The Herron Todd White, June 2014 Rent Roll Survey Report shows vacancy rates have continued to increase to 5.45% overall.

As reported by Herron Todd White, "Median house rents have dropped by $5 a week, from $365 to $360 per week, between March 2013 and March 2014. Median unit rents have dropped by $15 a week, from $315 to $300 per week, over the same period."

Townsville Real Estate Blog (TRB) believes rental prices have eased further in the June 2014 quarter based on 'coal face' monitoring, and forecast prices to steady with less easing in the September 2014 quarter. Prices are forecast to steady in the December quarter at the corrected new medians. It is bold to forecast that the unit median price could dip below $300 per week, but there is anecdotal data showing a subdued rate of enquiry on existing stock from professional and semi-professional occupations on existing CBD stock, a period after EOFY that draws higher inflows of this category into the City.

The Far North Queensland and Cairns market is experiencing a revival in demand and prices. A Cairns and Far North Queensland real estate agent said; “There has been a substantial rise (dwelling prices) on the back of high rental demand, which has increased the popularity of people buying instead of paying higher rents,” he said. “That’s the catalyst for the change in the marketplace and obviously the fact that rents have come up has attracted investors back into the marketplace as well, also with the underlying expectation that Aquis (a Chinese and Hong Kong-based 'super-resort' at Yorkeys Knob) will proceed. So there’s confidence in the housing market from that point of view, not only in current rental returns, but expected future capital gain.”, Mr Sterling from Ray White northern beaches said.

Townsville Real Estate Blog reported in March 2013 (Time to Wake and Smell the Roses Townsville Real Estate; Queen Bees are Being Born) that the optimum market for buyers would be 6-12 month away.

Mr McLeod, Principal of Rapid Realty in Townsville said; "The vacancy rates and supply and demand dynamic in the rental accommodation market is like a "canary in a coal mine" as far as sales are concerned. As is seemingly occurring in the Cairns market, a pickup in rental demand should signal a revival in volumes and prices in the sales market."

Ranked from highest to lowest by TRB in terms of the most influential micro-economic factors impacting the supply and demand dynamic in the Townsville property market are:

1. Higher unemployment from mining, government and small business retractions (demand flat)

The top ranked factor is unemployment and government instability. This factor is creating a negative imbalance of demand inflows for accommodation in the market. Higher vacancy rates have occurred as more people move away from the City seeking employment than an equal volume of people moving into the City. The current unemployment rate is approximately 8.5 percent in the district.

2.1. NRAS promoting false economy in new construction (demand flat/oversupplied)

By design, the previous labour government introduced the NRAS scheme to reduce the price of accommodation and housing in the marketplace, which was deemed to be 'overheating' and unaffordable for ordinary people at the time.

Driven by a consumer-centric society seeking cheaper prices, and adopted by a progressive government, this social policy decision is having a significant impact on rental vacancies in the non-subsidised accommodation and housing economy.

"What can be given by the pen, can also be taken by the pen!" NRAS is creating a false economy in the new construction sector. The Abbott government has budgeted for a termination of this scheme if the Federal Budget is carried in the current parliament.

2.2. Middle income families lured into NRAS homes at significant price discounts (demand flat/oversupplied)

Townsville Real Estate Blog have received reports that eligible NRAS tenants have declared over $100,000 in combined personal income yet were approved for the government subsidised and privately funded NRAS properties.

The attraction of middle income consumers to such a scheme demonstrates the depth and breadth of the demographic supported with government subsidised accommodation impacting the private real estate economy.

If the 'silver bullet' of public housing policy could be manufactured, the NRAS scheme would have to rival all social housing schemes in terms of the structural impact it is having on the supply and demand dynamic in the Townsville economy.

2.3 NRAS demand pool slowing and landlords seeking termination (oversupplied)

In recent times, TRB has received direct enquiries from NRAS landlords asking if they can terminate the NRAS contract early because of extended vacancy periods being experienced. NRAS registered property owners were unable to maintain essential cash flow from the NRAS pool of eligible tenants.

It has become evident that the exclusive nature of the NRAS scheme has itself exhausted qualifying tenants to fill vacating properties. Just as credible, the demand-side of this scheme is not meeting the appetite from investors seeking the lucrative $100,000 taxation rebate over 10 years.

3. Sustained low cash interest rates (demand positive)

Sustained low interest rates have contributed substantially to the demand for mortgages impacting the flow of capital into the property market in Townsville.

Mr Hassan of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute said; “While the Reserve Bank did not cut interest rates over the month, some banks have been lowering rates for new loans, reflecting recent declines in market rates as the slowdown in activity has seen a reassessment of prospects for the official cash rate. In August we saw the confidence of those households with a mortgage jump of 12.8%".

Mr Hassan also said "We expect the bank to again leave rates on hold at its July meeting and through the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015,'' he said.

The minutes of the RBA board's June meeting noted there were ''uncertainties'' over what impact the federal budget and expected declines in mining investment would have on the economy. Economic slowdown is 'likely', Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index shows.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/economic-slowdown-likely-westpacmelbourne-institute-leading-index-shows-20140618-3ae3t.html#ixzz3AGhU9sHF

4. Lack of sustained private and public capital projects (demand moderate)

Townsville's $78 billion capital expenditure programmes have by and large run their course such as the Flinders Street Mall redevelopment, new Cruise Ship Terminal and Port expansion, Port Access Road, Jezzine Barracks, Lavarack Barracks developments and expansion of the Townsville Hospital site.

Townsville Enterprise Chief Executive Officer, David Kippin, said, "the March quarter 2014 DSR shows investors have maintained confidence in the development of Townsville North Queensland with major infrastructure, construction and mining activity stimulated by new ventures. Since the December quarter 2013, more than $65M in projects have been proposed including the $50M aged care facility at Fairfield Waters,” David said. The report shows $9B in projects underway, $35B approved and $33B proposed for the region with more than $150M in projects completed since the December quarter 2013. “A number of significant projects have been completed including the $40M Jezzine Barracks and Kissing Point redevelopment which opened at the weekend with celebrations continuing throughout the week.” (Townsville Enterprise website, March 2014)

Employment from these projects, mining and government operations has caused robust and sustained price improvements to rental accommodation in line with the national consumer price index of 2-4 percent. The convergence of capital project completions, reduced private and government capital flows have been the sharp edge of the economic downturn and higher unemployment in the last two quarters.

5. Abandoned sales pushing into rental pool. Unsatisfactory vendor price to buyer value expressions and mortgagee in possession events (oversupplied)

Townsville properties are sitting on the market for sale for an average 105-110 days, 88 days for houses and 124 days for units. Over 3000 properties are listed on the market for sale in any one month across the City. Approximately 250-275 properties are sold per month. In February 2014, sale volumes were down to 215 for houses and slight increase in unit sales to 55. On average sellers are discounting the price of their properties by approximately 7-9 percent to achieve a successful sale.

Approximately 450 new properties were listed in May 2014 in postcode 4810, which includes suburbs of Townsville City and surrounding suburbs such as South Townsville, West End, North Ward, etc.  The overwhelming majority of properties do not achieve settlement. Approximately 8-9% of all properties on the market in Townsville actually sell per month. Of these sales, approximately 3% have been distressed sales as 'mortgagee in possession' transactions.

Sellers have opted to place their properties on the rental market contributing to the oversupply of stocks because of unsatisfactory price to vendor value. Just as there has been an increase in mortgagee in possession sales in the past 12-18 months, so too the occurrence of abandoned sales.

6. Abandoned sales pushing into rental pool; excessive strata levy increases (oversupplied)

Although both owner-occupiers and unit investors are abandoning sales due to unsatisfactory 'on the market' value/price considerations, it's the owner occupiers mostly contributing to additional accommodation supply and pushing vacancy rates higher each time an abandoned owner-occupier sale occurs.

Strata unit owners have contended with both inflow and outflow constraints. Holding cost outflows and rental income inflows have been unfavourable. TRB reported on the Strata unit market in December 2013 being the eye of the perfect storm.

http://townsvillerealestate.blogspot.com.au/2013/12/north-queensland-strata-rental-market.html

These concurrent pressures have led to 'on the market' decisions by owners generating further supply of units on the accommodation market in Townsville contributing to 7.40% unit vacancy rate.

Coupled once again with investor-driven new construction, reduced natural demand due to higher unemployment, and the influence of NRAS people movements, excessive strata unit supply is a worthy inclusion in the top 10 factors impacting the Townsville property market.

6.1. New construction; property investment spruiker road shows (oversupplied)

As the 2nd largest regional economy in Australia and a reputation as a government hub for defence, education, civil and social services, mining, transportation and tourism, Townsville is an attractive destination for investors from Australia and overseas.

Sydney-based franchise agent McGrath stated "comments came as mortgage broker AFG reported investment activity in Queensland had jumped from 33.5% in January to 38.7% in June. A lot of that activity is in Brisbane but key regional centres are also attracting attention. For example, our office in Townsville estimates that 50% of investment sales are going to North Queenslanders and up to 40% are going to Sydneysiders." McGrath said "investors were attracted to newer houses around $350,000 to $450,000 and small sites with development potential." (Property Observer, August 2014).

"Developer land stocks have tended to increase due to on-going production over recent months, with our latest survey showing a stock of 587 developer lots available for purchase as at the end of April 2014 compared to 424 at the end of June 2013", as reported by Herron Todd White's May 2014 Townsville in Focus.

With the slight downturn in new house constructions since 2013, combined with underperforming government grant schemes and a slowdown in economic activity, many of the new house constructions have been driven by Southern investors contributing further to an oversupply in the rental market.

“A pick-up in the property spruiking business is a signal things may be getting a little too exuberant,” HSBC Australia’s chief economist Paul Bloxham told the Australian Financial Review.

Townsville Real Estate Blog expects a notable reduction in developer land stock over the coming months. This may be a factor in sale prices and volumes in existing dwelling stock moving higher in the coming 6-18 months, setting the scene for more Sydney and southern investors seeking solid returns as the capital city markets cool off and returns ease.

6.2 New construction; State Government "great start grant" funding (oversupplied)

The Newman Government's repackaged "great start grant" targeted exclusively to first home buyers has contributed relatively minor activity in the housing economy. The government has simply rehashed the first home buyer’s grant, which many experts believe has lost its intended impact as an affordable entry incentive to the housing market for first generation home owners. The housing market has in fact experienced a modest slowdown in new constructions since 2013. 

Townsville Real Estate Blog believes the new construction eligibility for this scheme has contributed to the low popularity of an exhausted policy incentive because new house prices are much higher than comparable functional 2nd generation properties.

New construction products in Townsville are generally located 10-30 kilometres from the CBD. Such developments are North shore, Greater Ascot, Blue wattle, Cosgrove, Mount Margaret, etc. Combined with the premium price structure of new homes, first home buyers are opting to live closer to centres of employment, or social support centres, such a schools, shopping and hobby centres like sport and community participation facilities.

Herron Todd White's Townsville in Focus Report, May 2014 identified; "The trend in housing approvals has maintained a general increase over the last three years, most recently on the back of three large scale unit developments (together involving 238 new apartments) that have been approved thus far in 2013-14. However the number of new houses approved for construction has had a mild slowdown since mid-2013, to a trend average of 102 new approvals per month in March 2014."

7. Federal funding commissioning defence housing green acre developments and in-fill stock (demand flat/oversupplied)

Defence housing stock has received a substantial shot with the release of 98 hectares of land, 1300 lots, 430 of which is committed to defence personnel. The Blue Wattle Master Plan Community is 17 kilometres from the CBD in the suburb of Rasmussen.

In addition to this significant green acre development, defence housing is holding new stock in North Shore, Bohle Plains, etc. Anecdotal reports have confirmed that in the absence of sufficient defence customers, 20-30 surplus houses have been released onto the general rental market into Stockland's North Shore development, again contributing to excess supply.

The strategic importance of defence members on the Townsville economy is significant. As reported by Dr Riccardo Welters, School of Business at James Cook University, The Australian Defence Organisation and Tropical Australia: Its Socio-Economic Impact in Cairns, Darwin and Townsville, the following personnel are members of defence across tropical areas.

8. Reduction in immigration and refugee resettlement inflows (demand negative)

As a direct result of government policy, there has been inflows of 500 to 1000 persons per year being new immigration families mostly from North Africa and Central Asia, with this having reduced to negligible volumes in the past 12 months.

A reduction in immigration settlements to the City has been a relatively minor contributing factor. With a preference for affordable units close to Aitkenvale with nearby education, shops and transportation centres, the reduction has impacted the most sensitive strata unit rental market.

Every profit seeking trader wants to predict the bottom of the property market cycle in order to ride the wave of value growth, and then hold until the planned profit outcome is achieved that determines the optimum time to dispose of the asset.

Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007, astute investors in Townsville have factored into their Return on Investment (ROI) calculations, that property prices have more downside risk then upside opportunities. From a humble 'coalface' perspective, this manifests in investors requests for rental appraisals and a purchase contract consistent with at least 7 to 9 percent ROI on residential property purchases.

We have seen two changes in government at the State and Federal levels since 2013. Continued political and economic uncertainty in this time has contributed to a sustained bottom in the property cycle. Although not defined as a material contributor to the factors ranked in the content of this blog, political supply at a macro level is a credible risk moving forward for the local economy and investor confidence procuring property.

In my opinion, based on daily conversations with buyers, sellers and landlords around the dining room tables of the City, and critical analysis of broader material research, the property market has over-matured like an ancient Chinese cottage cheese.

References:

World's Oldest Cheese http://www.ibtimes.com/worlds-oldest-cheese-found-3600-year-old-chinese-mummies-made-ancient-technology-1558756

Dr Riccardo Welters, School of Business at James Cook University, The Australian Defence Organisation and Tropical Australia: Its Socio-Economic Impact in Cairns, Darwin and Townsville - http://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/30101/7/30101_Welters_2013.pdf

Sydney Morning herald - http://www.smh.com.au/

Townsville Bulletin - www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/

Townsville Enterprise website - www.townsvilleenterprise.com.au/

Herron Todd White, Townsville in Focus Report May 2014 - http://www.htw.com.au/

Herron Todd White Rent Roll Survey May 2014 - www.htw.com.au/

Cairns Post - www.cairnspost.com.au/

Townsville Real Estate Blog - townsvillerealestate.blogspot.com.au/

Rapid Realty Townsville - www.rapidrealty.com.au

Higher Agent Commissions Coming; Real Estate Industry Streamlined

The Property Agents and Motor Dealers Act (PAMDA) 2000 has been repealed and replaced with two new pieces of legislation separating the real estate industry from motor dealers and chattel auctioneers.

The new pieces of legislation are; Property Occupations Act 2014, under which Property Agents and Auctioneers will be regulated, and Motor Dealers and Chattel Auctioneers Act 20014 under which Chattel Auctioneers including Motor Dealers will be regulated.

Agent commissions under the new legislation will be deregulated meaning Agents can charge an unlimited commission where a Client and the Agent can agree. A cap on Agents commission of "5% for the first $18,000 then 2 1/2% thereafter" will become redundant.

Principal of Rapid Realty Townsville Aaron McLeod said, 'Agents are unlikely to change the rate of their commission for services in the first instance because it will take some time for the market to adjust to the new pricing culture. The consumer market for real estate services is expected to show some resistance, despite the fact that Agent fees have not changed in decades.", Mr McLeod said.

Mr McLeod commented that "most Agents will not change their commissions including our Agents but residential sales of multiple dwellings and prestige property sales would most likely come under review with higher commissions being charged by Agents due to the comparable risks involved in these types of transactions."

The new legislation also streamlines the amount of forms needed to complete property sales, letting and property management. The Appointment of Agent form now will replace seven existing forms, providing administrative relief for both Vendors and Agents.

The Warning Statement (Form 30c) will be removed altogether but a simple statement placed in a conspicuous position where the buyer signs the contract will be acceptable.

The current lawyer’s certificate form to waiver or shorten the cooling off period in the current legislation will also be removed.

Property Developers needing a specific licence under the current law will be deregulated, while pastoral houses will be included into other licence categories. Residential letting agents will be able to manage multiple sites and the application will be integrated with other real estates.

Business sales will no longer need to state an end date on the agreement for a continuing appointment. An open listing may be ended by any party at any time in writing.

The Queensland Office of Fair Trading being the department that administers and enforces the legislation and regulations have conducted extensive consultation with industry leaders and institutions such as the Real Estate Institute of Queensland.

REIQ chairman Rob Honeycombe said, "The simplified laws would deliver important benefits for both real estate professionals and consumers. He also said, "The Property Occupations Act and other associated legislation passed today (May 2014) wold cut red tape and make it easier to buy and sell real estate throughout Queensland."

Agents will no longer be required to disclose their commissions to the buyer of real estate, as it has been under the current legislation.

The real estate industry anticipates the new legislation to be effective from October 2014 with a moratorium for Agents having to update their practices and procedures.

References:

Office of Fair Trading – www.fairtrading.qld.gov.au

REIQ – www.reiq.com.au

Rapid Realty Townsville – www.rapidrealty.com.au

Farm a Queen Bee; Reserve Bank Board Membership Genius

Townsville and regional economies in Australia have specific and contextual demands impacting on cash flow and capital opportunities, risks and constraints and it must be acknowledged by Australia's political leadership and fiscal policy makers.

In the scope and context of Australia's economic contributions, regional Queensland's economic activity is a significant measure on the Reserve Bank's agenda in setting monetary policy and cash rates that regulate investment decisions and therefore business and consumer confidence.

Townsville Real Estate Blog supports the approach by local Townsville and Regional Queensland economist Colin Dwyer to the Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, Treasurer Joe Hockey and RBA Board to appoint the next Board Member from the pool of capable intellectuals and professionals from our region.

In the words of local economist Mr Colin Dwyer:
  
Regional Australian Member of the RBA Board

 It’s interest rate day today, and its time to prosecute a case for a regional Australian to become a member of the Reserve Bank Board. Not one of the nine members of the Reserve Bank board lives in Regional Australia. Not one of the past members of the monetary policy making body has ever lived in regional Australia. How can the RBA board make a decision on behalf of all Australians if they haven’t experienced the conditions in some of those locations?

Regional Australia comprises a third of Australia’s population, contributes most of its exports and many of its tourism destinations. In the past decade regional Australia with its mining industry kept recession and depression from Australia’s door. Its time for some regional Australia recognition.

I first raised this issue in 2010. Next year will be the first chance for a regional Australian to join the RBA board and express regional Australia’s rational expectation regarding monetary Policy and interest rates. In December 2015 Roger Corbett’s position comes up for re-election. Following that Catherine Tanna’s position is available on 29 March 2016, followed by John Akhurst role on 30 July 2016. Two other positions become available in 2017.

In total there are nine members of the RBA board with six non-executive members appointed by the Treasurer. The non-executive members are appointed for terms of up to five years. There is no limit on the number of terms a member may serve.

Are all the previous federal governments saying that there is no regional Australian who has the calibre to be appointed to the board? Next year, surely presents an opportunity for the current federal government to change this value judgement, honour the contribution of regional Australia and ensure regional Australia has a say in monetary policy decisions.

There are many worthy regional Australian contenders for this challenging role and some of them live in Townsville including, Company director Russell Laird, James Cook University Deputy Vice Chancellor Chris Cocklin and Chamber of Commerce president Stephen Moti.

After contributing our fair share over the past half century, its time a Townsville and regional Australian resident was appointed to the Reserve Bank Board. Only this way can a third of Australia’s population be confident that monetary policy decisions are including them.

The economic scorecard for Townsville and much of Queensland's regional economy certainly warrants unprecedented action from our political and business leaders. RBA Board membership is one positive step in a progressive Asian-centric trading zone in which Australia finds itself deeply entrenched.

Townsville is currently experiencing the highest unemployment rate at approximately 10 percent in the State and the property investment and accommodation economy is trending in negative territory with high vacancy rates and a notable decline in new mortgages being written by lenders.

Townsville Real Estate Blog will report on the specific factors our team believes has evolved contributing to the current property investment and accommodation economy in Townsville. Watch this space and visit our previous articles as follows:

North Queensland Strata Rental Market in Eye of Perfect Storm

http://townsvillerealestate.blogspot.com.au/2013/12/north-queensland-strata-rental-market.html

Lead Indicators for Townsville Property Market

http://townsvillerealestate.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/lead-indicators-for-townsvilles.html

Time to Wake up and Smell the Roses; Queen Bees are Being Born

http://townsvillerealestate.blogspot.com.au/2013/03/time-to-wake-up-and-smell-roses.html

Townsville and Central Queensland's property market is experiencing significant challenges on the back of high unemployment, mainly due to misdirected, and perhaps in hindsight for the State government, unintended consequences from policy commitments aimed at remedial budget and economic measures. Many proponents believe these measures are excessive! Political judgement in the context of current sensitivities could cause political damage at the ballot box with a change likely in local representation.

Further uncertainty and policy risks to business from political instability is unwelcome developments in light of the most recent Stafford State bi-election in the northern suburbs of Brisbane. The appointment of a Townsville-based Reserve Bank Board Member could bring both strategic and practical benefits to the region where federal policy influence on military, research, education infrastructure is sustained by federal budgets.

Townsville Real Estate Blog supports Mr Colin Dwyer's insights and respect the foresight of such an important appointment impacting on regional monetary policy, which could also influence like never before, the formation of fiscal policy by incumbent and future governments.

Media Release: Local Agent Head On with Foreign Franchises

Townsville's sporting community is proud of our local teams winning on a state, national and international stage be it the NQ Cowboys, Townsville Crocs, Townsville Fire or Queensland’s record breaking State of Origin team.

Well it's no different in the real estate game with locally founded company, Rapid Realty Pty Ltd (Australia) approaching the playing field with a feeling of pride and determination, taking on the foreign franchises head on with its own style of marketing, education and auction extravaganza events.

Townsville's own real estate franchise, often recognized by a "big red man" on 2.4m high signs around the streets of Townsville, was established in South Townsville in 2007 by two brothers with one employee.

Now employing a team of six staff, over 20 regular contractors and an alliance network of finance, legal and planning professionals with a "standout brand" delivering real estate sales and property management services across North Queensland.

"The innovation of our team to design and deliver a solid brand, practicing values of integrity, quality and service efficiency in a combined property education and trading event is remarkable; Rapid Realty's Founder and Managing Director, Aaron McLeod said from his Kirwan home.

Mr. McLeod commented; this marketing initiative is consistent with our "real service, rapid results" commitment and is a reflection of the passion, gutsy and try-all attitude of our people to exceed client expectations. Our clients want “rapid results” but not at the expense of fair prices, so achieving a sale within 8 weeks 90-95% of the time is a quality outcome.”

Rapid Realty is seeking more local people to aspire and share in the values and growth plans for the company, firstly in North Queensland and then across Australia. With the real estate industry and property market on the verge of recovery in 2014, enquiries from aspiring real estate professionals wanting to enter the industry is picking up, Mr. McLeod reported.

Helping the community with education and achieving great sales results for clients through the "learn and earn, one-stop-shop" initiative is a win win outcome in a competitive real estate market in Townsville.

More often than people may acknowledge, the corporate business gives to the needy in the community with sponsorship or donations. In kind, people going through the pain of divorce, deceased estates, financial stress forcing a down grade or disposal of a property are all reasons an agent helps distressed customers with no financial gain. The client’s freedom to decide to sell is withdrawn for legal, emotional or economic reasons.

Providing free expert opinion and no obligation information is invaluable to the community needing the freedom of choice and movement. Learning and earning is an essential community need for personal growth and economic prosperity.

Being a real estate agent today is about "giving, not taking"; Mr. McLeod said. The mantra of giving and helping is a soft approach to selling. This has seen the company’s earnings increase 20% per year since Rapid Realty was launched in 2007. With their headquarters to remain in Townsville, the "learn and earn" initiative creates perfect synergy with all levels of investors needing to research before they buy.

Supporting a true local agent means the Townsville community benefits from employment opportunities, capital investment and profit reinvestment, as well as in kind knowledge expertise with genuine interest in caring for people. That’s the Rapid Realty way and point of difference from foreign franchisers, Mr. McLeod stated.

Ready for further development and expansion from its Townsville home, Rapid Realty is presenting their marketing talent this Tuesday 25^th Feb at the Master Builders House on Sturt Street showcasing the "learn and earn, one-stop-shop" property investment seminar and auction extravaganza.

There are limited seats available so registrations will be necessary. If you want to support this Townsville company, register rapidly at www.rapidrealty.com.au or call their office on 4771 3600.

Time to Wake up and Smell the Roses Townsville Real Estate; Queen Bees are Being Born

Townsville’s Real Estate economy is on the cusp of renewal and regeneration after an extended period of hibernation, passive demand and external uncertainties, a leading independent North Queensland Real Estate Principal said.

Mr McLeod of Rapid Realty Australia and Director of McINC Investments and Consultancy said, “Consumer confidence indices have been improving over many months which suggests that lower prices and retail discounting is stirring the end consumer to feel they have more bang for buck. “This sentiment has been evolving in the non-discretionary spending sector such as accommodation and housing for many months”, Mr McLeod said.

“Leaders in our North Queensland headquarters in Townsville have reported that prospective tenants and buyers for that matter are asking to negotiate prices down more frequently and with more depth suggesting consumers have a higher expectation that prices could be discounted”, Mr McLeod said.

This is also reflected in the Melbourne Institute’s Consumer Sentiment Index which reports that sentiment has increased by 2.0% over the month to 110.5 points which is its highest level since December 2010 (111.0 points). The consumer sentiment index has increased over six of the past seven months and is up by 12.6% over the past six months.

Each component of the index except for time to buy a major household item rose over the month and only the index which measures family finances over the past 12 months is showing higher levels of pessimism than optimism. RP Data Property Pulse, 15/03/2013.

For the first time in nearly a decade, the Townsville rental vacancy rate has bounced over 3% to 3.14% in February 2013, HTW Rental Vacancy Survey, Feb 2013.

For many in the industry this is unprecedented and could typically put downward pressure on rental accommodation prices if sustained. However, Mr McLeod believes this anomaly will be short lived and should improve for investors as North Queensland, and Townsville particularly, traditionally has a seasonal movement of consumers out of accommodation in November and December and January. Accommodation is now being filled with new arrivals and streetscape changes occurring.

"The imbalance in the depth of this movement of consumers through December, January and February 2013 out of the economic zone could have been affected by delays in the State government’s placement of employees in the health, education and infrastructure-related departments, following the Campbell Newman government’s announcement late in 2012 of job cuts in this sector”, Mr McLeod said.

By contrast, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the January 2012 housing finance data this week. The data revealed that the number of owner occupier finance commitments fell by -1.5% over the month with non-refinance commitments falling by -1.9% and refinance commitments -0.7% lower. Year-on-year, non-refinance commitments are -0.8% lower than last January while refinance commitments have recorded a much greater -10.0% fall.

The total value of housing finance commitments rose by 2.4% over the month with investment finance commitments increasing by 4.4% and owner occupier commitments increasing by 1.3%. Year-on-year, the total value of owner occupier finance commitments has fallen by -0.5% however, investment commitments have seen a significant increase of 18.6% as reported by the ABS. The increase in investor finance compared to domestic finance is a significant measure of consumer-centric investors’ finding confidence in a more favorable property market, improving global economic data from the United States, Asia and Europe on our domestic equities markets expanding.

The Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Survey identified 21.3% of respondents felt that real estate was the wisest place, down from 24.0% last quarter to invest over bank deposits, shares, paying down debt, etc. The proportion of loans to first home buyers was at its lowest ever level in Queensland (10.4%) over the month.

“The gestation period for consumer-centric investors as confident buyers has been long coming over the past four years since the housing market peeked, and with a cultural effect from consumers becoming comfortable with retail price discounting, now is the time to “wake up and smell the roses” before the Self-Managed Superannuation Fund and experienced and astute investors pick the early blossom in the Townsville real estate market”, Mr McLeod said.

So when could be the best time to pick the right property?

At a micro level it is impossible to pick the perfect day. The lead indicators are in place to act within the next 6-12 months because the number of competitive buyers with consumer-centric needs (owner-occupiers) should be in less demand. Although not the only lead indicator of owner-occupier buying behaviors, the higher rental vacancies rate over 3% in December 2012 suggests a historical correlation of lower domestic demand by owner-occupier’s could be occurring in the next 6-12 months.

We did see a contrasting behavior by owner-occupiers later in 2012 as Townsville welcomed the 3^rd Army Battalion approximately 6-12 months before as rental consumers. Demand indicators showed lower rental vacancy rate at around 2% during March and April 2012.

A sustained improvement in investor and business confidence could play out in the Townsville economy after the Federal election is held in September 2013, by which time State Government infrastructure spending, institutional, SMSF, private equity and development investor’s may also ramp up the flow of capital on the back of lower domestic interest rates and a global financial recovery.

In the meantime, a residual demand of owner-occupiers seeking to upgrade, downgrade and street change, and those economically resilient consumers with residual wealth and a growing institutional investor market should see property prices be maintained over coming months in the Townsville residential market.

Data Source:

Rapid Realty Townsville Vacant Rates Data, Feb 2013. www.rapidrealty.com.au

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Westpac and Melbourne institute Consumer Sentiment Survey
RP Date Property Pulse, February 2013
Herron Todd White Townsville Rental Vacancy Rate Survey, Feb 2013